A cost-effectiveness analysis of denosumab for the prevention of skeletal-related events in patients with multiple myeloma in the United States of America

Objective: A large, pivotal, phase 3 trial in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma (MM) demonstrated that denosumab, compared with zoledronic acid, was non-inferior for the prevention of skeletal-related events (SREs), extended the observed median progression-free survival (PFS) by 10.7 months, and showed significantly less renal toxicity. The cost-effectiveness of denosumab vs zoledronic acid in MM in the US was assessed from societal and payer perspectives.

Methods: The XGEVA Global Economic Model was developed by integrating data from the phase 3 trial comparing the efficacy of denosumab with zoledronic acid for the prevention of SREs in MM. SRE rates were adjusted to reflect the real-world incidence. The model included utility decrements for SREs, administration, serious adverse events (SAEs), and disease progression. Drug, administration, SRE management, SAEs, and anti-MM treatment costs were based on data from published studies. For the societal perspective, the model additionally included SRE-related direct non-medical costs and indirect costs. The net monetary benefit (NMB) was calculated using a willingness-to-pay threshold of US$150,000. One-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

Results: From a societal perspective, compared with zoledronic acid, the use of denosumab resulted in an incremental cost of US$26,329 and an incremental quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) of 0.2439, translating into a cost per QALY gained of US$107,939 and a NMB of US$10,259 in favor of denosumab. Results were sensitive to SRE rates and PFS parameters.

Limitations: Costs were estimated from multiple sources, which varied by tumor type, patient population, country, and other parameters. PFS and overall survival were extrapolated beyond the follow-up of the primary analysis using fitted parametric curves.

Conclusion: Denosumab’s efficacy in delaying or preventing SREs, potential to improve PFS, and lack of renal toxicity make it a cost-effective option for the prevention of SREs in MM compared with zoledronic acid.     

基于伪相关函数的cosine-BOC调制信号无模糊跟踪算法

针对余弦二进制偏移载波（cosine-BOC）调制信号自相关函数的多峰特性会导致导航接收机同步阶段产生跟踪模糊度问题，提出了一种基于伪相关函数（PCF）的cosine-BOC调制信号无模糊跟踪算法。该算法通过分析cosine-BOC信号的时域模型，在本地设计两路辅助信号波形，与接收到的cosine-BOC信号进行相关运算，再将得到的两互相关函数利用伪相关函数表达式进行组合，从而消除cosine-BOC信号自相关函数的边峰。仿真结果表明，该算法能够消除cosine-BOC信号鉴相曲线中存在的误锁点，实现伪码无模糊跟踪，提高跟踪可靠性，且该算法适用于任意阶数的cosine-BOC信号。     

Property rights protection,financial access and corporate R&D: Evidence from a large representative sample of Chinese firms

The motivation of this paper is to explore why corporate R&D investments are significantly different under similar institutional backgrounds. Our estimates not only confirm a positive relationship from property rights protection (hereafter PRP) to corporate R&D, but also show the mediation effect of financial access on this positive relationship. Thus, we use financial access to explain the variant effect of PRP on corporate R&D. With exogenous instrumental variables, our estimates are robust to endogeneity issues.     

Economic factors affecting water supply resilience to disasters

Water supply systems need to be resilient enough to provide people and critical users with reliable water following a disaster. Previous research has shown that four main factors dictate system robustness and rapidity of recovery following a disaster: vulnerability, social capital, organisational capacity, and economic capital. This paper identifies the economic factors affecting water supply resilience. Relevant factors and indicators were gathered through a comprehensive literature review and verified through a series of interviews with water supply, resilience, and social scientists and economists. Economic capacity and quick access to finance were found to be the main economic factors influencing the resilience of water supply systems. Quick access to finance is most important in the early stages following a disaster for response and restoration, but its importance declines over time. In contrast, the economic capacity of the disaster struck area as well as the water sector play a vital role in the subsequent reconstruction phase rather than in the response and restoration period. Indicators for these factors were tested for the case of the February 2011 earthquake in Christchurch, New Zealand.     

Power of sustainable development: Does environmental management system certification affect a firm's access to finance?

Although prior research generated inconclusive findings between a firm's environmental management system and firm financial performance, attention to resolve this inconsistency by examining the internal channels is limited. Thus, this study focuses on a firm's access to finance and investigates whether a firm's environmental management system certification (EMS) leads to better access to finance. Based on the organizational legitimacy perspective, we hypothesize that this certification will benefit a firm with stakeholder approval and support and consequently alleviate its financial capital constraints. We further posit that the proposed relationship will be moderated by three types of legitimacy environments pertaining to how stakeholders and investors make the judgment on the environmental management system certification. We document that the proposed relationship, that is, the positive relationship between environmental management system certification and access to finance, will be stronger when the government attaches larger importance to environmental protection (regulative legitimacy), better environmental record (moral legitimacy), and better financial position (pragmatic legitimacy). Empirical analyses provide strong corroborating evidence for our predictions. These findings have important theoretical and managerial implications that are well discussed in this study.     

Regional economic transformation: Changing land and resource access on the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island

The West Coast region of New Zealand has experienced significant structural economic changes since the 1980s. These changes have been a result of state imposed land use restrictions that limited productivist activities such as logging and mining, which in turn have been overlain by the effects of changes in national and global resource demand. This has led to both job loss and local resentment to what is seen to be external political and environmental interference in the region. Such changes overlay on-going boom-and-bust cycles experienced in the region’s resource dependent communities and the state’s pursuit of neo-liberalism from the 1980s, leading to the loss of state support and employment in the region. Regional path-dependence and ‘lock-in’ centred on productivist activities and the slow realisation of the need to diversify the economy have not helped. The region has under-performed in comparison with national trends economically and demographically reflecting and reinforcing local path dependence. The gradual growth of the service and tourism economies marks a new use for land resources and slow structural economic change. However, in the absence of governance processes that allow for collaborative planning to resolve conflicts over future trajectories for the region, conflicts over land uses, resources and access are likely to persist.     

Investigating the intertwining impact of wholesale access pricing and the commitment to net neutrality principle on European next-generation access networks private investment plans: An options-game application for capturing market players' competitive interactions

Whilst the deployment of next generation access networks (NGANs) is undoubtedly beneficial to the economy, new legal developments in the United States (US) regarding the issue of net neutrality (NN) pose a new challenge not only to policy makers but to telecommunication providers as well, that could justify a fresh approach when assessing NGANs investments. In particular, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) subverted extant NN rules in the US and if the European Union (EU) decides to follow a similar deregulatory path in the future it could change the way telecommunications providers on both sides of the Atlantic lay down their optical-fibre network infrastructure investment plans. For instance, if traffic prioritization is allowed then diversification of revenue sources can be achieved by charging customers for privileged data delivery to their premises. Currently, NGANs roll-out throughout EU is an ongoing process in a setting whereby access regulation in the form of network element unbundling is already imposed. As a result, these legal developments form a new context within which it makes sense to assess the role of NGANs wholesale access pricing in tandem with the degree of commitment to NN rules so as to i) determine their combinatorial impact on private telecommunications operators' financial figures and ii) capture their competitive interactions. Towards this end, an important aspect of particular value to market players (i.e. incumbents and competitive providers – CPs), and policy makers (i.e. National Regulatory Authorities – NRAs) that this article aims to examine is how to employ the option-game (OG) analysis, that reflects the intersection of game theory (GT) and real options (ROs), to model the competitive interactions between participants in a particular competition game set-up by means of deriving possible Nash-equilibrium (NE) outcomes within a regulatory setting part of which is the commitment or non-commitment to the NN principle. This, hybrid, evaluation tool is applied on top of a conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) techno-economic analysis assessment of an NGAN investment opportunity.     

融合精准扶贫诉求的“多规合一”规划结构耦合模型研究：以昆明市寻甸县为例

研究目的:针对当前"多规合一"面临障碍和精准扶贫诉求,探索融合精准扶贫诉求的县域"多规合一"规划结构耦合路径,为国土空间规划的编制提供参考和依据。研究方法:文献研究法,多目标优化模型。研究结果:"多规合一"规划结构耦合模型可基于战略、数量、空间和治理结构耦合建立规划结构耦合目标框架,战略结构耦合需梳理各个规划"轻重缓急"战略导向,理顺厘清战略主次关系;数量结构耦合要求明确规划底数"存量",统筹分配确定自然资源"底量"、"流量"和"变量",并依据"价值量"寻求耦合最优解;空间结构耦合应基于"线—面—点"的空间逻辑,形成优先保证底线、合理安排分区、优化配置项目的耦合思路;治理结构耦合要求对各个规划的实施保障措施进行整合、创新和择优,优化解决治理机制矛盾和强化规划实施保障。研究结论:本文尝试构建的"战略—数量—空间—治理"规划耦合模型能够实现多个规划间战略结构层级化、数量结构五量化、空间结构多维化和治理结构择优化,尤能彰显治国理政重大战略导向和迫切发展诉求,能够为破解规划融合障碍、构建规划结构耦合系统框架和支撑国土空间规划的编制提供参考。     

江苏省农业碳排放动态变化影响因素分析及趋势预测

[目的]在分析2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放的基础上,描述其影响因素,并预测2016~2030年江苏省的农业碳排放量。[方法]运用农业碳排放估算方式计算2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放量,并运用多元回归模型分解碳排放的影响因素,最后利用灰色预测模型预测2020~2030年江苏省的农业碳排放量。[结果]2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放量主要呈现三段式变化。2000~2003年,表现为小幅度的先增长后下降趋势;2004~2010年,农业碳排放量呈现快速增长趋势;2011~2015年,农业碳排放总量开始缓步减少。对影响因素的分析结果表明,江苏省农业碳排放的主要影响因素来源于经济发展方面,如单位农业能源消耗、农业人口人均GDP等表征指标。农业科研人员数量对碳排放量减少起到一定的作用。预计2016~2030年江苏省农业碳排放量会持续缓步下降趋势。[结论]2000~2015年江苏省农业碳排放量主要呈现三段式变化。2000~2003年,表现为小幅度的先增长后下降趋势;2004~2010年,农业碳排放量呈现快速增长趋势;2011~2015年,农业碳排放总量开始缓步减少。预测2016~2030年间将呈持续缓步下降趋势。     

A model selection approach for multiple indicators multiple causes model

This study proposes a model selection approach for determining the inclusion or exclusion of a latent variable when two exogenous and two endogenous variables are provided. The models compared are the multivariate regression model without latent variables (MR model) and the multiple indicators multiple causes model (MIMIC model). The inclusion of a latent variable in the MR model yields the MIMIC model. In the proposed approach, an information criterion is used to select the best model of the two. The efficacy of the proposed approach is examined through two types of simulation studies and empirical analyses of the shadow economy and the fiscal illusion.